Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In Latest 2 Surveys—As Most Polls Show Razor-Thin Race
Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.
Topline Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to two new polls—but most surveys show a dead-heat contest for the White House, keeping the race wildly unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.
Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris Campaigns In Georgia
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign [+]
event at Divine Faith Ministries International on October 20 in Jonesboro, Georgia.
Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
An Emerson College Polling survey (October 23-24) released Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% one week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and it’s the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris hasn’t enjoyed a lead since August.
Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House, The Times notes.
The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October that showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys over the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage and six others found Harris leading.
The candidates are also dead even, at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September survey, while their poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% and Harris with 46%..
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.
Harris erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
