There are 4 teams with two wins or less, what are the odds those teams finish with the league’s worst record?
It was a great Thursday night. Not only did the Chicago Bears win a football game, but they tallied another loss on the Carolina Panthers resumé and helped their chances at landing the always precious number one overall pick.
With that result, there are now four teams that are contenders for the top overall spot. Those teams are the aforementioned Panthers, the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and the New York Giants. The Giants and Patriots sit at 2-7, the Panthers and Cardinals sit at 1-8.
Each of these teams have eight games remaining. If you have read any of my previous articles on this subject or listened to me discuss it on the podcast. I look at this as a number one pick survivor. Once you reach your fourth win on the season, you are eliminated.
Now, it is, of course, possible that a 4-13 team could be the worst team in the league, but I looked, the last season where the league’s worst record was four wins was the 2003 season so the odds that a team finished with three or less wins is highly likely.
If we throw three-win teams into the mix, we would add another six teams (the Bears included), but if we stick with the same idea of being eliminated at 4 wins, those six teams have between 7 and 9 games remaining to eke out one more win, the odds are good that each one of those teams won’t finish the season on an epic losing streak. Again, it’s possible, but we are going with probability here.
Let’s use FPI and rank the four teams’ odds at landing the first overall pick.
4. New England Patriots 2-7
It’s certainly surprising to have the Patriots listed with this group but not shocking. The Patriots have been trending the wrong direction since Tom Brady left for Florida, and many feel Bill Belichick has lost his fastball.
Regardless of why the Patriots are here, they are here. But I think the odds the Patriots land this pick are pretty small. FPI has them listed with a 2.9% chance, and that seems about right. There are two things going against the Patriots, first of all, they have two wins, which means two more victories, and they are eliminated from first pick survivor. And truthfully, here’s the other thing working against them, of these four teams, they have the best strength of schedule.