There’s a lot to be excited about with what is to come for the 2024 Orioles
The 2023 Orioles achieved heights that were beyond even the wildest imagination of fans before last season began. While optimists might have believed the team could achieve its first postseason berth since 2016, the further feats of taking the AL East title for the first time since 2014 and firing off a 100+ win season for the first time since 1980 were unreal until the moment they became real. Not that any of this amounted to even one playoff win.
Last year’s team is going to be a tough act for the 2024 Orioles to follow. The good news is, pretty much everybody who was involved in authoring that amazing 2023 record is back! The only batters to get at least 200 plate appearances last year who aren’t back are Adam Frazier and Aaron Hicks. They are all still young enough to where this is a good thing rather than an automatic criticism. More prospects are coming, including #1 prospect Jackson Holliday before hopefully too long.
There’s a bit more uncertainty to contend with in the pitching staff. That’s because we already know that last year’s All-Star closer Félix Bautista will be out for the whole season. There’s also the Kyle Bradish setback to latch onto for anyone who wants to worry. If things go according to current hopes, he could be back in mid-May and hopefully continuing his form from last year.
At least these can be balanced out by the aggressive addition of Corbin Burnes to the starting rotation – and, if you’re a believer in him, in chasing-Hall of Fame-caliber closer Craig Kimbrel. Successful pitching staffs often have these kinds of veteran anchors keeping things steady. If Elias has gotten the right guys, Orioles fans will experience what that is like.Gunnar Henderson’s follow-up to winning Rookie of the Year
The most recent Orioles position player to win the ROY before Henderson did so last year was Cal Ripken Jr. all the way back in 1982. Ripken, like Henderson, was 22 years old when he won his award. Cal’s follow-up act was to come out for a sophomore season in 1983 where he batted .318/.371/.517 – an .888 OPS as a shortstop at a time when the league average at that position was hitting to a .665 OPS.
The glove wasn’t too shabby either, and the combination of these things, plus the bonus of Ripken being on a great Orioles team, led Ripken to an MVP win for that ‘83 season. He’s still the most recent MVP winner for the Orioles, that being his second crown in 1991. The 8.2 bWAR that Ripken was worth in 1983 has not been beaten by any Oriole other than Ripken himself in the 40 years since his first win.
Henderson is already a lot closer to that kind of level of performance than Ripken already was in 1982. Ripken’s ROY-winning season came when he was worth 4.7 WAR. Henderson dropped a 6.2 on the American League in his rookie campaign. What could it take to ascend up to 8 WAR or more?
If Henderson plays mostly shortstop instead of splitting between short and third, that will boost his WAR, assuming he performs at least as well as last year. A good-hitting shortstop is worth more than a good-hitting third baseman. Another 5-7 homers, a few more walks, and a few more steals might get him there. That might give the Orioles a good chance to get the first MVP since Ripken won in 1991 too.
Burnes chasing the best Orioles pitching season since 2000
Orioles starting pitchers have not had a whole lot of elite performance ever since Mike Mussina left following the 2000 season. These are the best pitching seasons by bWAR in that time:
- Érik Bédard (2007) – 5.8
- Kyle Bradish (2023) – 4.9
- Rodrigo López (2004) – 4.8
- John Means (2021) – 4.5
- (T-4th) Jeremy Guthrie (2010) – 4.5
The franchise’s Cy Young drought has gone on for even longer than the MVP drought. Not since Steve Stone in 1980 has an Oriole won the Cy. Mussina probably should have won one, but the Cy voters of his career kept coming up with excuses to ignore his greatness, much as Hall of Fame voters later spent several years doing the same before Mussina was inducted. Still: It’s been a while. No one has even come close ever since 2000. Bradish’s fourth place last year and a Zack Britton fourth place finish in 2016 has been it.
Burnes being here is exciting in its own right for what it means for the 2024 Orioles. One thing that the team was missing last season, which was part of what was exposed in the postseason series against the Rangers, was a true ace with experience to handle the big moment. It’s also exciting to get a former Cy Young winner providing the kind of quality, hopefully, that hasn’t been seen in an Orioles uniform in more than 20 years.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but this is by no means guaranteed. Burnes was pretty good last year and would have been welcome on the Orioles. He just wasn’t at his Cy-winning peak, with his strikeout rate having dropped by about a quarter and his walk rate going up by close to 40% from what it was in 2021. 3.5 WAR doesn’t break you into this top 5. Like many Orioles starters last year, Burnes was better in the second half. We can all hope he pitches in 2024 like the second half of 2023.
The prospects are still coming
Adley Rutschman was the #1 prospect in baseball and he has been great since debuting in 2022. Henderson was the #1 prospect a year ago and his rookie season was phenomenal. Grayson Rodriguez delivered on the promise of his hype with a strong second half of last season, and Jordan Westburg arrived and looked like a capable big leaguer too.
Cedric Mullins could chase a 20/20 season. Anthony Santander’s contract year has the potential to be interesting. The lineup overall could have at least a league average batter at every position on a regular basis.
Excitement about the Orioles doesn’t come naturally to me given their performance for the bulk of my 40 years of life, especially my adult life when it’s been bad except for one five-year stretch plus the last two years. But really: There’s a lot that’s potentially awesome here. I’m even excited that Camden Yards is going to have a couple of specialty food stands in the upper deck, which has not been the usual experience for us 300-level season plan holders.
