July 7, 2024

A large pocket of Steelers fans has wanted coach Mike Tomlin to go, for more than a few years now. After the current year ends, they might get what they want.

And they still might want to be careful about what they’re wishing for.

For the first time since Tomlin became the coach of the team in early 2007, it feels like a divorce is coming. And it’s not that the Steelers would fire Tomlin. If a split occurs, it will happen either because Tomlin wants out — or because another team looking for a new head coach (Commanders, e.g.) calls the Steelers to initiate the process for essentially pulling off a trade.

What would the Steelers want for Tomlin? He’s under contract for one more year. Twenty-one years ago, Jon Gruden was under contract for one more year with the Raiders. And the Buccaneers gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and $8 million to get Gruden. (On the defensive staff that Gruden inherited was a young defensive backs coach named Mike Tomlin.)

Surely, it wouldn’t take that much to get Tomlin. Especially if Tomlin is willing to do what few coaches ever dare to try. Tomlin could make it clear, internally or externally or both, that he’s content to finish his contract and become a coaching free agent in 2025.

His willingness to do that could make the Steelers more reasonable regarding whatever they’d want for a coach they possibly no longer desire.

Regardless of how it plays out, there’d more than enough smoke to make the teams that will be looking for a coach to at least make the call to Pittsburgh in order to see whether Tomlin would be available. As a practical matter, the owners of the teams that could be changing coaches are likely already working the back channels to find out: (1) whether Tomlin would want the job; and (2) whether the Steelers would part ways with him.

So where will it go? Much of it will depend on what happens over the next three weekends. Unless Tomlin has already decided that, no matter how the rest of the season goes, it’s time for a change.

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