The first north London derby of the season is here and both sides come into it in red hot form. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Arsenal vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Tottenham: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are predicted to win this game, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 47.6% chance of victory over rivals Tottenham.
- This is the first ever Premier League north London derby with both clubs unbeaten coming into the match.
- Arsenal are looking to win three straight league games against Tottenham for the first time in over 30 years.
Match Preview
Fresh off the back of playing their first Champions League game in over six years, Arsenal host rivals Tottenham at the Emirates Stadium this weekend.
Both sides come into this game with unbeaten Premier League records (W4 D1), and Spurs (2nd) sit two places above Arsenal (4th) on goal difference alone. Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool are sandwiched by the two teams in third, with Manchester City out in front at the top.
Both teams’ fast starts mean this will be the first Premier League north London derby with both Arsenal and Tottenham unbeaten coming into the match. Going further back, it’s just the third NLD in league history that both clubs come into the game with an unbeaten record, and the first since 1990.
Arsenal have had the better of this clash in recent years, winning both of their league meetings last season, and the Gunners have won four out of the last five Premier League fixtures between these two sides. Mikel Arteta has a perfect 3/3 record in home league meetings against Spurs and should he win again on Sunday, he’d become just the second manager – after Terry Neill between 1977 and 1980 – to win each of his first four home north London derby matches in charge of Arsenal.
They come into this match with a comfortable 4-0 victory over PSV Eindhoven and a victory to celebrate their return to the Champions League. It’s remarkable how strong Arsenal were against teams looking to attack high up the pitch, given that manager Ange Postecoglou demands this kind of play from his team. It’s true that Spurs have better players than PSV, but Arsenal’s joy running through the central areas, especially the evocative Martin Odegaard, should put them in a good position heading into the derby.
Tottenham Hotspur continued their most recent win (2-1 win over Sheffield United in their last match) as two late goals from Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski gave them the youngest come-from-behind win in Premier League history. I had to work hard towards it.
Nevertheless, this late victory kept them unbeaten at the start of the season, and they once again scored at least two goals in a Premier League game. Ange Postecoglou became the fifth manager to have his team score two or more goals in the first five games of this competition (after Carlo Ancelotti, Josep Guardiola, Craig Shakespeare (yes!) and Maurizio Sarri). then). Of the previous four matches, Sarri’s Chelsea are the only team to fail to score at least two goals in the sixth game.
Of course we’ve been here before with Tottenham. Antonio Conte led Spurs to an unbeaten start last season with five games (wins, two losses), but the season ultimately fell apart and they finished in eighth place. But even if Spurs’ unbeaten run ends there, the atmosphere at the club is very different to what it was 12 months ago.
Bukayo Saka has been in brilliant form for Arsenal. The England winger has contributed 18 goals (12 goals, 6 assists) in his last 18 Premier League home games, and has scored 1 goal (2 goals) or 2 assists in all three league games played at the Emirates Stadium this season. Recorded 1 assist (1 goal). . The Arsenal star set up Leandro Trossard’s winning goal against Everton on Wednesday night against PSV, setting up Leandro Trossard’s winning goal and registering a goal and an assist. This week, David Raya once again had a goal advantage over incumbent Aaron Ramsdale. The Brentford loanee has started Arsenal’s last two games and his ability to handle the ball at his feet, particularly the accuracy of his long-range passes, gives Arsenal another weapon in the build-up game.
Gabriel Martinelli is doubtful for this game after suffering a hamstring injury against Everton at Goodison Park last weekend. This could be another chance for Trossard to start. Earlier this week we outlined how the Belgian has so far done more than enough in his limited game time to warrant a spot in the starting line-up, but Martinelli’s injury likely derailed him. It will open. There are still doubts about Thomas Partey.
Arsenal will be happy to have Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane, who has scored 14 goals in 17 Premier League games against the Gunners, in this game, but they may have to deal with a resurgent Richarlison. Tottenham’s north London side would have welcomed the Brazilian’s appearance against Sheffield United. His equalizer was Spurs’ second goal in their 32nd Premier League game. Son Heung-min led the team from the start in this match and is likely to lead the team again at the weekend, but a rejuvenated Richarlison could be a damaging option off the bench.
Spurs suffered a major blow in training this week when experienced Croatian player Ivan Perisic suffered a cruciate ligament injury during non-contact training. He will now miss this match along with Rodrigo Bentancur (knee), Ryan Sessegnon (hamstring), Brian Gil (groin) and Giovani Lo Celso (quadriceps).
Arsenal vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
This Sunday will be the 194th north London derby in history. Arsenal lead the bragging rights overall (81-51-61).
They’ve also had the better of this fixture in recent memory. After winning both of their league meetings against Spurs last season, the Gunners are looking to win three straight league games against their north London rivals for the first time in over 30 years (five in a row between 1987-89).
The fact this game takes place at the Emirates should give Arsenal fans even more confidence. Remarkably, Tottenham have won just one of their last 30 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D11 L18), and are winless in 12 (D4 L8) since a 3-2 victory in November 2010.
Recent Form
So far the only blemish on Arsenal’s start to the season has been a frustrating 2-2 draw at home to Fulham, a game that they really ought to have won based on the quality of chances they created. Still, with wins over Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Everton, they are unbeaten to start the season and sit just two points behind leaders Manchester City.
Wednesday night gave Mikel Arteta his first taste of Champions League action, and the games come thick and fast for the Gunners. They’re scheduled to play five in just two weeks across three different competitions before the international break. It’s a congested spell that ends in a Premier League showdown against Man City.
With 13 points through five matches, Spurs are off to their best start in Premier League history. To put that achievement into context, it’s their best points return after five games since 1965-66 (also 13), and they’ve only had a better start to a top-flight campaign once in their history, back in 1960-61, when they started with five wins from five.
Opta Power Ranking
Opta Power Rankings is a global team ranking system that assigns skill scores to over 13,000 national soccer teams on a scale of 0 to 100. 0 is the worst team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here are his Opta Power rankings for both teams.
The Opta supercomputer predicts Arsenal to win this match, giving them odds of 47.6% for the weekend. Historically, home advantage has been crucial in this match, and given Spurs’ terrible away record at the Emirates, the 25.7% figure for winning all three points may seem generous. do not have. But a new era is dawning at Tottenham, and it may finally be time to change that narrative. The probability of a draw is 26.7%.
Looking at his latest predictions for the 2023/24 Premier League season with his Opta supercomputer, out of 10,000 simulations he has only 2.0% of predictions for Arsenal to win the title. This makes him third favorite after Man City (91.1%) and Liverpool (6.6%). Tottenham wins the league in only his 0.1% of simulations.
The Gunners are much more likely to qualify for his UEFA Champions League (82.0%), while Spurs qualify in his 31.4% of simulations.
