But neither is Marquez out of it, and if you were to list the likeliest riders to win the title this year Marquez’s name really probably shouldn’t go any later than third.
Which is not to say that he starts the season third-fastest. He might be that, he might be fifth- or sixth-fastest, but even if he is there’s still a plausible outcome where 10 rounds into the season he has that championship-level speed once more.
Over the two 2024 pre-season tests, he has shown just enough glimpses – while leaving just enough plausible deniability – to keep the intrigue as high as it could be coming into his competitive Gresini Ducati debut in Qatar in two weeks’ time.
For all of that intrigue though, it’s not as if Marquez himself is being particularly cryptic in his answers. On evidence of what he had seen in Qatar, he set out his expectations in a more precise manner than you might expect.
“I mean, realistically for Qatar… if the race was right now, I think we can fight for the fifth-sixth position, more or less,” he told MotoGP.com.
“But the race weekend is different. These guys, especially Pecco, [Jorge] Martin, [Enea] Bastianini, they know very well the bike and they just go out and they push and they are super fast from the beginning.
“Still I am far from them but I try to learn the riding style, try to learn how they manage problems. And yeah, step by step, I have to be closer and closer.
“If it will be enough, I don’t know, but at the moment still a bit far.”
