Kevin O’Connell’s Offense Has Been Predicated On A Pass-Happy Approach Early In His Tenure. Things Will Need To Change Without Kirk Cousins.
Kevin O’Connell’s Offense Will Need to Pivot Away from Pass Happy Style
After the Mike Zimmer years that were all about defense and clock management, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been a breath of fresh air. Gone are the days when the Vikings would predictably run the ball on third and short. Gone are the days when they would automatically punt or kick a field goal if they failed. In his first year at the helm, KOC had the Vikings jump from passing the 18th most all the way to 3rd most in the NFL. This year, that ascent has continued to 2nd behind only the Commanders who are constantly playing from behind.
Without Kirk Cousins, there is no way that the Vikings can continue to have success while passing on 66.87% of plays. This is going to have to be an adjustment period for KOC and his staff. Kirk Cousins, for all his other faults, is one of the most adept and accurate passers in the league. When he’s in rhythm and getting the ball out on time, he can put up points through the air in bunches. Cousins is also one of the most experienced and cerebral quarterbacks out there, able to handle some of the more challenging concepts in KOC’s offense.
Regardless of who starts the majority of Minnesota’s games at quarterback down the stretch, it’s a safe assumption that they’re going to have to embrace the run more than they have to this point. Despite having a great offensive line, that’s been an issue thus far. Kevin O’Connell’s offense will also have to be updated and simplified to a degree. How exactly that looks will likely come down to which of Minnesota’s quarterbacks is out there on a week-to-week basis.
Breaking Down the Skillsets of Minnesota’s Quarterbacks
Further complicating the adjustments KOC will need to make, each of Minnesota’s quarterbacks has a drastically different skillset. For this exercise, we’ll only look at the three quarterbacks most likely to see starts the rest of the way and try to imagine what the offense might look like if tailored to them.
The Current Starter: Jaren Hall
Jaren Hall is going to get the first opportunity to take the job and run with it. The rookie fifth-rounder has already been announced as the starter for the Falcons game Sunday. For him to hold on to the reigns beyond this week, holding on to the football is going to be paramount. If he wants to hold on to the job for the rest of the season, he’s going to have to show glimpses of being exceptional.
Hall showed such glimpses during his preseason finale when he got the chance to start and play the entire game. He’s a smaller but dynamic athlete, who uses his legs to extend plays more often than run. KOC is likely going to design a lot of quarterback bootlegs to get him out of the pocket and bide time for him to find open receivers. In some ways, it should be exciting to see a true dual-threat quarterback in this offense. Hall is the only one of Minnesota’s quarterbacks who could run Kevin O’Connell’s offense and potentially add to it. He’s been practicing with the team all season and has the requisite arm talent to make the necessary throws.
It’s going to be key for Hall to get into a rhythm and show that he can make quick decisions in the pocket. Given his status as a late-round rookie, he’s likely only going to have a few opportunities to make an impact. His first start in Atlanta is going to be paramount for how the team views him moving forward.
The Journeyman Returning from Injury: Nick Mullens
There’s a chance that Nick Mullens would already be the starter this week if he was available. As things stand, he’s eligible to come off IR as soon as Week 10’s matchup with New Orleans. He likely will need a week or two to get up to speed, but he presents the most pressing threat to Hall’s job once he’s fully ready.
Mullens isn’t an incredibly inspiring athlete, but he’s put together stretches of solid football as a fill-in. His 5-12 record as a starter may not provide much confidence either but it’s good enough for a backup. If the Vikings are looking for a quarterback that would be the safest bet to “maybe’ squeak into a Wild Card game, Mullens might be the guy. Everyone would have to be playing at their absolute best around him for that to occur though.
From a schematics standpoint, it would mean lots of short/play action passes and relying heavily on the ground game. Kevin O’Connell’s offense would essentially start looking like the New Orleans offense under Derek Carr. Things would get tough to watch given Minnesota’s inability to run the ball consistently. With the definitive ceiling of an offense under Mullens, one would imagine Hall gets every opportunity to stave him off.
The Break Glass in Case of Emergency Option: Josh Dobbs
There are a lot of onlookers who believe Josh Dobbs is going to be the starter in Minnesota after coming over at the trade deadline from Arizona. Frankly, Dobbs was basically free and his play in Arizona doesn’t equate to that of a starting quarterback. Dobbs was likely brought in simply to give the Vikings a respectable option in case Mullens doesn’t make it back from injury and Jaren Hall goes full Nathan Peterman during his debut. It would be somewhat surprising to see him start a game for Minnesota this season.
If Dobbs were to make an appearance this season though, it could lead to the most drastic changes on offense. Of Minnesota’s quarterbacks, Dobbs is by far the least effective passer. To hide that, the Cardinals employed one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Again, the Vikings simply don’t do that very well. If Dobbs is inserted into the lineup, any hope the Vikings have of staying relevant would quickly disappear.
As a head coach, Kevin O’Connell has never had to live in a world that doesn’t include Kirk Cousins. This is going to be the first chance for him to show that he’ll be able to adapt his schemes to a different signal caller’s skill set. If the Vikings want to stay in the conversation, he’s going to have to ace this test.
