To say Liverpool has had a strong start to the 2023–24 Premier League season would be an understatement.
The Reds are unbeaten in five and have taken 13 points from a possible 15.
Only Manchester City (three) and Jurgen Klopp’s team (four) have given up fewer goals, and that defensive record is even more impressive when you consider that the 2019–20 Premier League champions were reduced to 10 men in two of the games, while Ibrahima Konate, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Virgil Van Dijk – three-quarters of the starting back four – have all missed games.
Liverpool’s offence is also running smoothly. Only City (14), Spurs (13) and Brighton (15) have more goals than they have (12). Even though the Reds have only played five games, they already have seven different goal scorers on the team: Darwin Nuez, Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo, Diogo Jota, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Andrew Robertson.
Klopp’s side have come from behind in three of their five games, showing great resilience to overturn deficits in different situations, with some claiming the ‘mentality monsters’ are back once again.
It was a phrase used by the Liverpool manager during the 2018/19 campaign when his side kept finding ways to win to keep pressure on Manchester City during their pursuit of the title. The Reds lost one game that season in the Premier League and finished second with a ridiculous 97 points.
Having the mental fortitude to keep coming from behind to win matches is obviously a positive. As cliche as it sounds, it is the sign of champions. But there will come a point in which this particular run needs to be halted.
What I mean by that is, Liverpool can’t keep conceding the first goal and having to score a minimum of two to pick up three points. It isn’t sustainable.
You can get away with it in the short-term but eventually, the attack is going to misfire or an opposing goalkeeper will have a Man-of-the-Match showing and it’ll cost the Reds.
Clearly, the numbers currently paint a good picture.
Liverpool finished with an expected goals total of 3.08 against Bournemouth after taking 26 shots and amassing four big chances en route to a 3-1 win. The stats against Wolves were equally impressive, as the Red Devils had 16 shots to the home team’s 11, 4 big goal chances and finished the match with an expected total of 2 goals, 52, significantly higher than the total (0.63) accumulated by the home team. host.
Newcastle was a completely different story, it was a big win for the Red Devils. The Magpies had more shots and a higher expected goals total as they took full advantage of their extra man over an hour.
Newcastle was a different story entirely with it being a smash and grab for the Reds. The Magpies had more shots and a higher Expected Goals total as they took full advantage of having the extra man for over an hour.
But game state comes into these metrics. For example, Bournemouth and Wolves scored inside of six minutes. They had a lead to hold onto and this altered their approach. Now, the Cherries did well for 20 minutes before sitting a little deeper and this coincided with Liverpool finding their feet in that game. When a team does drop off and look to soak up pressure, it is hard to get out of that mode and mindset when you do need to ramp it up.
Bournemouth and Wolves tried to defend their advantage rather than looking to add to it. They looked to counter on the break but they never really controlled the game or the tempo, and this allowed the Reds to dictate things and build momentum.
With Liverpool having over 65% possession in both matches, their attacking numbers are going to look good. With a lot of possession comes a lot of shots, generally speaking. And every shot adds to the Expected Goals total. With enough shots, the Expected Goals haul is going to look favourable.
