He’d have been well within his right, when he finally removed his pads for perhaps the last time as a member of the Broncos, to wonder, “Well, what next?”
That, essentially, is the question of the offseason for Denver, too, as it moves toward a divorce from the quarterback who was acquired 21 months ago in hopes that question wouldn’t surface again until many years and at least one Lombardi Trophy later.
Instead, this will be an offseason of many questions for the Broncos.
Is Wilson’s Broncos fate sealed?
The most likely outcome among essentially three is that the 12-year veteran will be released before March 17, when his $37 million in 2025 salary would become fully guaranteed.
Denver might hope Wilson has enough of a market that teams are interested in trading for him, but the quarterback has no-trade protection and would need to sign off on any deal.
Perhaps the most drastic action Denver could take is to keep Wilson past March. The $37 million guarantee would trigger. Wilson would stay on the roster until or unless he got nervous enough about his future to acquiesce to a restructure and trade. Even given the hardball played to date in these negotiations, that doesn’t seem likely.
A release in many ways is the simplest path forward for everybody involved.
Simplest, however, hardly means simple for the Broncos.
How do the Broncos navigate financial ramifications of Wilson’s departure?
If the Broncos do indeed release Wilson, the financial fallout will be substantial. It may be technically possible to take the entire $85 million dead cap charge in 2024.
“If you just max out the credit card to the crazy, Saints level and you add nobody of substance in free agency and basically just sign your draft class, you could do it,” Pro Football Focus and OvertheCap analyst Brad Spielberger told The Denver Post recently. “I think, though, that the big thing and smart thing they’re doing is not pushing it to 2025 and 2026. Take half the lump in 2024. I know it’s $50 million (in 2025), but if they’re smart, they can navigate a rookie contract quarterback potentially and still be competitive.”
Even in that situation, the Broncos are looking at a substantial impact on two seasons. The Broncos also already have $9.7 million in dead cap for 2024, according to OTC data, most attached to Randy Gregory’s contract.
What is the future of the QB position?
Denver holds the No. 12 pick in April’s draft. The franchise could take a quarterback in the first round for the first time since Paxton Lynch (No. 26) in 2016. The Broncos haven’t taken a signal-caller at No. 12 or higher since Jay Cutler at No. 11 in 2006.
Trading up will be an expensive proposition and taking a Day 3 flier is unlikely to yield a Brock Purdy Powerball winner.
They’ll have other options, too, but to what end? They could trade for one of the myriad backups who got time this year or is still young and perhaps worthy of development, mine the free agent bargain bin for a Gardner Minshew type or take a bigger swing for Chicago’s Justin Fields or another player who could get displaced by a high draft pick.
Is general manager George Paton safe?
Much of the Wilson conversation is tied in part to the Broncos’ general manager. He engineered the trade for Wilson (five draft picks and three players) and oversaw the negotiations on the five-year, $245 million extension signed before the 2022 season.
He also was part of the negotiations as far back as last summer and then midseason with Wilson’s camp that Wilson took as a threat.
All the same, it appears at the moment that Paton is on relatively stable footing. The Wilson drama has been ongoing and there may well be twists or turns ahead. Payton will certainly have a say in what happens and will lay out a timeline that involves a couple of weeks’ worth of evaluation rather than quick decisions as soon as the season ends. The coach, though, has been adamant publicly so far that he enjoys working with Paton.
Going forward with Paton, Payton and CEO Greg Penner would represent continuity Denver hasn’t had at the head of its football operation in years. Now, the question is will that actually happen?
Who are other key players to watch this offseason?
Several, in fact.
It remains to be seen if Denver can engineer a full-on roster overhaul given the potential implications of a Wilson departure and it remains to be seen if the Broncos brass believes such an overhaul is necessary.
Even without that, though, the Broncos have several highly paid players who enter 2024 with no guaranteed money left on their contracts and, as such, could be potential targets for cutting, restructuring, extending or trading.
That list includes S Justin Simmons, LT Garett Bolles, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Tim Patrick and DL D.J. Jones. WR Jerry Jeudy has $12.987 million guaranteed in 2024, but he’s also a trade or extension candidate.
Denver’s free-agent group includes starters ILB Josey Jewell, C Lloyd Cushenberry, S P.J. Locke, DL Mike Purcell, TE Adam Trautman, FB Michael Burton, K Wil Lutz and CB Fabian Moreaue.
