The Packers host the Vikings on Sunday and expectations for their offensive output haven’t been this low in years — probably since the Brett Hundley days in 2017.
Through the first half of the season, the growing pains for this offense have been very real, and worse than we initially anticipated. It’s been six weeks since the Packers last scored more than 20 points.
In their last two outings, Green Bay’s offense has combined for 30 total points against two defenses who both rank bottom-5 in the NFL in EPA/Play allowed.
Now they must take on a Vikings defense that, while not exactly world-beaters, just held the impressive 49ers offense to only 17 points on Monday night.
This Vikings defense isn’t just any old defense, they are probably the most edgy and aggressive unit in the league when it comes to getting after the quarterback.
The Vikings are blitzing the quarterback on a gargantuan 63.6% of passing plays this season. That’s the most of any NFL team since at least 2010!
The linebacker duo of Jordan Hicks and undrafted rookie Ivan Pace Jr. may have only combined for 0.5 sacks in the first half of this season, but quarterbacks certainly feel their presence. Hicks ranks first in pass rushing snaps by a linebacker. Pace ranks 4th.
Ivan Pace Jr. in particular has left a mark in his rookie season. Blitzing the QB was his specialty in college at Cincinnati and the Vikings have given him a license to create carnage against offensive lines. His pass rush win rate of 30.6% per PFF is the 2nd best of any defender in the league.
But QBs can’t just keep their eyes on Minnesota’s linebackers. They’ve also got a duo of safeties in Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus who rank 1st and 2nd respectively among all NFL safeties in blitzing snaps.
These guys send everyone at the quarterback, and it is a nightmare to gameplan against.
Minnesota are going to mix up their looks to make the pre-snap read as confusing as possible. As pointed out by Peter Bukowski, Minnesota also drops 8 defenders into coverage (and hence a 3-man rush) more than any other team in the league. Nothing this unit does is normal.
How have the Packers fared against the blitz?
The Packers have been blitzed on 30% of passing plays, so around half as often as they’re expecting to face on Sunday. This places them 20th in the league.
The numbers also show that Jordan Love has fared quite well against the blitz too. He has only taken 3 sacks on 70 total dropbacks vs. the blitz. He has thrown 3 TDs and 0 incompletions. His only downfall has been completion percentage — 51% against the blitz (2nd worst) — a common struggle for Love so far this season. He just isn’t completing passes at the same clip as everybody else.
Limiting sacks and turnovers paired with a low completion percentage and below average YPA would suggest that Love has been hesitant to take risks against the blitz, but his 10.7 average depth of target on these plays ranks 4th in the NFL and would indicate the complete opposite.
It’s tough to gauge Love’s overall performance on these plays on a sample size of throws that equates to only 2 games worth of throws. As an offense overall, Green Bay’s EPA/Play against blitzes ranks 12th best in the league. Their pressure rate allowed also ranks 12th. So roughly they have been an average to above average unit which is cause for some optimism.
However throw the stats out the window and the stereotypical cliche of sending the house after a young, inexperienced quarterback is still very real. The Packers cannot allow Jordan Love to get flustered early on in this matchup.
I would hope the Packers have worked on some quick game passing concepts they can look toward out of the gates in this one. They would get the ball rolling for Love and they might finally get some points in the first half of a football game.
If Minnesota holds true to their defensive identity, which they almost certainly will, then you can look toward some deeper developing plays off of play action with running backs and tight ends chipping at the line or accounting for the blitzing linebackers up the middle.
We know how much Love likes to go over the middle. It’s one of the handful of refreshing changes after years of Aaron Rodgers throwing exclusively outside of the hashes.
That tendency to find open targets across the middle will bode well for the young quarterback in this one, as that is the space the blitzing linebackers and safeties are vacating.
The Vikings expectedly play more Cover-0 than any team in the league, so this is the opportunity to get all of your athletes lined up on the outside and beat Minnesota’s corners in 1-on-1 coverage.
I actually quite like Sunday’s matchup for the Packers offense. The Vikings are blitzing QBs at a historic rate, but Green Bay has all the tools necessary to defuse this bomb.
Their biggest challenge will be weathering the early storm. Something they haven’t done in the last handful of games.
