The NRL is one of the most ruthless businesses in Australia and hardly a season passes without at least one coach being shown the door.
The Wests Tigers have handed a rookie the responsibility of cleaning up arguably the biggest mess in the past decade.
Cameron Ciraldo was one of the sought-after coaches in years and in 2024 he’ll need to start living up to his billing at the Bulldogs.
But the man under the most pressure is Rabbitohs coach Jason Demetriou who is trying to pick up the pieces after a disastrous finish to 2023.
Premiership winners Des Hasler and Shane Flanagan have both started afresh at new clubs, while Anthony Seibold and Todd Payten are also out to prove a point.
Here foxsports.com.au has given every NRL coach’s pass mark for 2024 and the likely consequences of falling short.
2024 pass mark: sign two stars
There’s plenty of hope among the Tigers faithful that club legend and now rookie coach Benji Marshall can drag them off the bottom of the ladder.
But his first 12 months won’t be measured on wins as much as they will be on which signatures he can secure on the open market.
Marshall, 38, was appointed in large part due to his high standing in the game and close relationship with current NRL stars who he played with and against just two years ago.
The Tigers board will be able to live with another bottom-four finish in 2024 if Marshall can sign two big names for 2025.
Marshall is currently chasing Panthers star Jarome Luai and he’s also keen on Warriors wantaway Addin Fonua-Blake.
Nobody is expecting Shane Flanagan to produce miracles, with a roster lacking depth, in his first season as a head coach since 2018.
But onlookers are definitely expecting to see improvement at the Dragons and that can only happen if their best players are firing.
Flanagan told foxsports.com.au he wants Jaydn Su’a and Jack Bird playing Origin again next year and declared Moses Suli also has the talent for the arena.
Ben Hunt is a certainty to play for Queensland but if another two Dragons get selected it’ll be a clear sign that Flanagan has the club heading in the right direction.
If four players get picked then expect St George Illawarra to play finals for the first time since 2018.
There’s no two ways about it, Cameron Ciraldo was the most sought after rookie coach in 2022 and he didn’t live up to the hype in 2023.
The Bulldogs underperformed badly this year with stars Matt Burton, Josh Addo-Carr and Viliame Kikau all producing indifferent campaigns.
The arrival of general manager Phil Gould in 2021 and then Ciraldo was supposed to turn things around at Belmore, but instead they fell three spots on the ladder from 2022 to 2023.
Canterbury’s attack slightly improved this year but their defence fell off a cliff as they went from allowing 23.9 points per game to 32.
The NRL’s premiership-winning side usually concedes less than half of that, typically around 15 points per game, with the Panthers allowing just 13 on average in 2023.
The Titans finally have a big-name coach at the helm and there’s huge belief on the Gold Coast that Des Hasler can make them reach their potential.
Hasler knows what winning looks like, having coached two premierships and he played in another two – all for Manly.
The Titans have plenty of weapons in attack but it’s their defence which has let them down in recent years, allowing over 27 points per game over the past two seasons.
But that number should come down significantly now they’ve got a hard-taskmaster running the show and Hasler won’t accept anything short of a trip to the finals.
Hasler boasts an impressive 56 per cent winning record over his 458 NRL games coached and his success has largely been built on defence.
The Dolphins stunned the rugby league world in their maiden season to sit fifth on the ladder after 10 rounds with a 6-4 record.
But their depth was always going to cause problems and in the second half of the season a string of suspensions and injuries caught up with them.
Bennett has bolstered his 2024 squad by recruiting Broncos stars Herbie Farnworth and Thomas Flegler, and speedster Jake Averillo from the Bulldogs.
Fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is one the most dangerous players in the competition and winger Jamayne Isaako was the NRL’s leading try scorer and points scorer in 2023.
Throw in young gun No. 6 Isaiya Katoa being a year older and it means the Dolphins should be knocking on the door of playing finals in 2024.
There’s just too much talent on the Sea Eagles roster to not be playing finals and their losing record in 2023 was a huge underachievement.
Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans headline the star-studded backline which now also includes 2018 Dally M Halfback of the Year Luke Brooks.
Anthony Seibold came from nowhere to replace Des Hasler at the end of 2022 in the wake of the club’s infamous pride jersey saga.
Seibold’s side won two more games in 2023 than 2022 but they actually finished a spot further down on the ladder in 12th.
Their numbers for both attack and defence improved but Manly lost a string of close games in the middle of the season that cost them a finals spot.
The Cowboys were the feel-good story of 2022 after storming up the ladder to finish third and host a preliminary final under second-year coach Todd Payten.
But they came crashing back down to earth this year when they won just five of their first 13 games of the season – and the damage was done.
Payten managed to spark a six-game winning run in the middle of the year but the Cowboys faded late – losing four of their last five – to miss finals.
Now their best young player in No. 6 Tom Dearden is on the open market and the Maroons representative is weighing up leaving the club.
Payten must hang his future on Dearden and go all in on the 22-year-old, because if he’s allowed him to leave then the coach could be the next one out the door.
All things considered, Brad Arthur did well to get his side within one win of finals in 2023 following a string of injuries and suspensions.
The Eels made the 2022 grand final but Arthur lost six of his best 17 players ahead of the 2023 season and they dropped four of their first five games this year.
They won eight of the next 11 games to sit sixth on the ladder after Round 18, but star No. 6 Dylan Brown was suspended over an off-field incident until Round 23.
Athur’s men lost four of the final six games to miss finals, but he did re-sign their star halves Brown and Mitchell Moses on long-term deals.
Arthur is coming into his 11th season at the Parramatta helm and if he misses finals again the veteran coach will likely be shown the door.
Jason Demetriou is arguably under the most pressure of any coach heading into 2024 following South Sydney’s disastrous finish this year.
The Rabbitohs were on top of the ladder after Round 11 then superstar fullback Latrell Mitchell was injured and the side spiralled.
But things really imploded when Souths legend Sam Burgess quit his role as an assistant coach a week out from their must-win final clash against arch rivals the Roosters in the final round.
They lost that game to inexplicably miss finals, but the club still pushed ahead with re-signing Demetriou on a three-year extension until 2026.
There will undoubtedly be performance clauses in Demetriou’s contract and now that he’s got 2020 Dally M Medal winner Jack Wighton in his side, missing finals again won’t be tolerated.
Let’s be honest, expectations were low for Canberra heading into 2023 and they’re even lower for 2024.
Ricky’s Raiders did well to prove the doubters wrong this year by playing finals and almost eliminating the high-flying Knights, but they’ve since lost their best player in Jack Wighton.
They do have Origin backrowers Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh, and Joe Tapine is one of the best middle forwards in the world, but that’s pretty much where their star power ends.
Former representative weapons Josh Papalii and Elliott Whitehead are both on the wrong side of 30, while there are no guarantees Corey Harawira-Naera will return after having a mid-game seizure this year.
Wighton has been replaced with inexperienced recruits Kaeo Weekes and Simi Sasagi, and pundits are already tipping Canberra to collect the wooden spoon.
The 2023 premiership favourites flopped through the opening 22 rounds before finally clicking into gear and storming into finals.
The Roosters took down the Sharks in week one of the finals but two months of must-win football caught up with them in Melbourne the following week.
Trent Robinson has lost a handful of fringe first-graders but he signed Dom Young, fresh off after the international winger scoring a record 25 tries for the Knights.
Robinson has also recruited three-time Panthers premiership-winning prop Spencer Leniu and convinced veteran front-rower Jared Waerea-Hargreaves to play another season.
The Roosters have the best team on paper in the NRL and anything short of a top-four finish, barring a host of injuries, will be seen as a failul.
Fitzgibbon was one of the most sought-after coaches in recent years after winning three premierships at the Roosters as an assistant.
The former champion player joined the Sharks ahead of the 2022 season and immediately delivered on the hype with a second-placed finish, but they were knocked out of finals in straight sets.
This year Cronulla finished sixth and their season ended in week one of finals at home when they were upset by the Roosters.
Fitzgibbon and his father Allan now both hold 0-3 records in finals with Cronulla. Fitzgibbon Sr lost his three finals games as the club’s coach in 1988 and 1989.
The Sharks have missed finals just once since 2015 but they haven’t tasted victory in the postseason since 2018.
The Knights finished the 2023 season in scintillating fashion as they took the competition by storm with a 10-game winning streak.
Newcastle were on the ropes heading into their clash with the Bulldogs in Round 18 but produced the biggest win in club history (66-0) to spark the streak.
Star fullback Kalyn Ponga led the charge and was rewarded for his efforts by winning the Dally M Medal ahead of Warriors halfback Shaun Johnson.
The epic winning run saved coach Adam O’Brien his job and the club, who had been looking into his replacement options, are now preparing to offer him a long-term extension.
But any new deal will be filled with performance clauses and O’Brien must prove 2023 wasn’t a flash in the pan or he’ll be back under the microscope in no time.
The Warriors were the feel-good story of 2023, surging up the ladder under a rookie coach that almost nobody had heard heading into the season.
Andrew Webster served an 18-year apprenticeship to earn his shot as an NRL head coach and he took to the top job like a duck to water.
Webster steered the Warriors from 15th on the ladder to fourth in just 12 months as the Kiwis made their first preliminary final in 12 years.
Webster was named the Dally M Coach of the Year and now he’s got 2018 Dally M Medal winner Roger Tuivasa-Sheck on his roster.
Everybody wants to see the Warriors success continue and now Webster has set the bar it means anything short of another preliminary final berth will be seen as a step backwards.
Craig Bellamy has set such a ridiculously high standard in his two decades at the club that unless the veteran coach wins the competition, he’s left filthy.
The Storm were uncharacteristically bad at times in 2023 and the players copped some rare public sprays from Bellamy, but when it was all said and done they still finished third.
Melbourne boasts the best spine in the NRL with Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen unrivalled as a quartet.
Bellamy made grand final after grand final with his ‘Big Three’ and now the club has four superstars the 64-year-old won’t tolerate anything less.
Bellamy has suggested 2024 could be his final season in charge and don’t be surprised to see him sail off into the sunset with another title.
The Broncos were without doubt the most exciting team to watch in 2023 as coach Kevin Walters allowed his men to be themselves on and off the field.
Walters entered this year coaching for his future and he finished it just one try short of delivering Brisbane a drought-breaking premiership.
Superstar fullback Reece Walsh proved himself the buy of the season, while Ezra Mam and Herbie Farnworth enjoyed breakout seasons.
Farnworth and Kangaroos prop Tom Flegler have since joined the Dolphins, while Walters has only recruited front-rower Fletcher Baker.
The Broncos are expected to be back in the grand final and Walters must also find a way to keep his remaining stars inside a salary cap that’s already bursting at the seams.
Five straight grand final appearances has never been done in the NRL era, but the Panthers still boast one of the best squads in the competition.
There’s a reason the bookies already have Penrith as favourites to become just the third team in Australian rugby league’s 115-year history to win four straight titles.
It hasn’t been done since the legendary Dragons won a mind-boggling 11 straight between 1956-66, but write off the Clearys at your peril.
Coach Ivan and halfback Nathan are the most formidable duo in the league and will absolutely believe they can shatter the record books in 2024.
It will almost certainly be gun No. 6 Jarome Luai’s final season at the Panthers and with the club boasting the best crop of best young players in the NRL, expect Cleary to orchestrate another title tilt.
